Reality Bites » Drawing Realizations from Fantasy — Week 11
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Drawing Realizations from Fantasy — Week 11 11.23.09 at 4:08 am ET
By DJ Bean

The last couple of weeks have seen some players return to relevance (think a certain Rams running back) while some sleepers have put owners back to sleep (think a Cowboys receiver). However, if there is anything we have learned this season, it’s to not take these things at face value. Here are the true lessons we learned from Week 11.

Miles Austin’s unproductive day was encouraging.

If there was a general theme of Sunday it was that order was restored. Austin, like many other players mentioned here, is a good example. In the case of Austin, four catches and 47 yards were not the type of stats that owners were hoping for, but he was targeted seven times by Tony Romo, which is low but encouraging considering that Roy Williams was targeted just four times. Williams’ increased production in the past couple of weeks has led some Austin owners to worry that Romo and Williams are finally on the same page and that Austin’s 15 minutes of fame are up. This week owners can rest easy knowing that Austin didn’t produce because the Cowboys simply ran into a good secondary. Unfortunately, even though Austin is still the No. 1 in Dallas, he has Nnamdi Asomugha and the Raiders next week, so it would be wise to keep him on the bench if you have other options.

A couple of Falcons passed some big tests.

Matt Ryan and Jason Snelling were both put on the spot on Sunday, and each responded well. I had pointed out a few weeks ago that Ryan and the Falcons (sounds like Doug and the Slugs) were in the midst of a nationwide interception tour that went from Chicago (Week 6) to the Meadowlands (Week 11). Ryan had 10 picks in five games starting with the bout with the Bears but turned in a solid outing (268 yards, two TD, and more importantly no picks) in what was supposed to be the last leg of the tour. Though his second-quarter fumble led to a Giants touchdown, Ryan’s slipup undoubtedly had less of a negative impact on his fantasy owners than it did on the Falcons’ overtime loss. Snelling, on the other hand, got all of the carries for the Falcons, including seven-and-one-yard touchdown runs. Depending on how much more time Michael Turner misses, Snelling could do some big things against Tampa Bay in Week 12.

Josh Freeman stunk the place up… finally.

To be completely honest, I was becoming frustrated with the amount of “he’s not that bad” chatter that surrounded Freeman after his first two starts. Though he showed some misleading promise with his four total touchdowns against the Packers and Dolphins, the rookie quarterback was clearly headed for a buzz saw against the Saints. Freeman should have never fooled anyone into thinking that he has any fantasy value, but in the event that he did and people need clarification, he doesn’t. Chad Henne and Alex Smith are both better options.

Steven Jackson update: Don’t call it a comeback…

…Seriously, don’t. Jackson scored for the third straight week and registered his sixth 100-yard game of the season. Though he hasn’t been top-10 fantasy back, he is putting together a fantastic season and being Mr. Everything for the Rams. Unfortunately, with the rest of the offense still doing absolutely nothing (two passing touchdowns in the last four games), the question of field position is too staggering to imagine that Jackson will have weekly reservations for six, so the recent scoring stretch shouldn’t give owners too much confidence.

Laurence Maroney has been the exact opposite of Steven Jackson.

Jackson has made a season out of running hard for big yardage and has scored only three times because of how bad his offense is. Maroney, on the other hand, has fumbled at will, rushed for 75 yards just three times, yet has scored six touchdowns in his last five games thanks to his offense (and a few injuries, of course). Obviously the Patriots want Maroney to have success, as it is a team’s worst fear for fans and league personnel alike to think they missed on a first round pick. That, in addition to the recent touchdowns, have left many prognosticators thinking that Maroney will be the lead back for the Patriots from here on out. I am afraid to go that far, considering his one-and-two-yard touchdown runs weren’t exactly highlight reel material. Just like Jackson previously was the victim of bad field position, Maroney has been the beneficiary of good field position and a good offense. Maroney might not be worth starting if Sammy Morris is back for the Saints game.

Jay Cutler is in the fantasy doghouse.

Once a staple in Can’t-Pass-Up Matchups, Cutler has become a risk/reward start in a matter of just two weeks. The Eagles are ninth in the league against the pass, but Cutler owners were probably looking for something a little more promising than what they got following Cutler’s five-interception debacle against the 49ers in Week 10. With the Vikings up next in Week 12, Cutler might be better on the bench in standard leagues. No, the secondary isn’t overwhelming, but the pass-rush is good enough to get Cutler— who loves making mistakes anyway— even more off his game. You’d have to be in a really good situation to have Cutler as your third QB in a two-quarterback league (there is someone out there that good— you can reach him at djbean@weei.com), so if you are forced to start him and it blows up in your face, don’t act like you weren’t warned.

Keep in mind that Vince Young’s 73 rushing yards came against the Texans.

The Monday night game was one that was supposed to feature two players tearing it up– Matt Schaub and Chris Johnson. Both did, and while Johnson rushed for 151 yards, he didn’t get in the endzone and much of the attention was placed on his quarterback. It seemed that Young was able to scramble his way out of any situation, which should actually worry owners more than it gives them confidence. After all, he won’t be facing a cellar-dweller run defense next week against the Cardinals, and if he tries the same stunts, the Titans could be in for a long day.

Eagles receivers update: Things are almost back to normal.

Either that or DeSean Jackson is putting an end to the “who does Donovan McNabb prefer?” debate. First it was Jeremy Maclin that made his presence felt following McNabb’s return from a rib injury with a 142-yard, two-touchdown game against the Buccaneers. Then it went to Maclin getting the catches (but not touchdowns) while Jackson would ride one big play to the better fantasy week. That continued until Week 10, when Maclin pulled a Jackson by scoring despite being targeted half as much as his counterpart. Against the Bears on Sunday, however, Jackson was targeted more (10 to nine) and had a 48-yard touchdown. Perhaps this little case study is over and Jackson is officially McNabb’s favorite target. The Eagles could hold a press conference announcing that McNabb likes one and hates the other, but I’ll still follow this closely from week to week. The Eagles face the Redskins in Week 12, and considering how strong they were against Tony Romo and his receivers, it isn’t looking like a great matchup for Jackson or Maclin.

Apparently Carson Palmer is saving up all of his fantasy points for Cleveland and Detroit.

With back-to-back cake opponents on the horizon, Palmer owners sure hope so. The fact that Palmer has yet to throw for 275 yards in a game this season should be pretty concerning. If somebody told you that the Bengals would have seven wins through 10 games without  Palmer having a single 275-yard game, you would think they were loony, though the fantasy world obviously wasn’t counting on Cedric Benson to be the game-changer that he was prior to his injury. Either way, if Matthew Stafford can light up the Browns, Palmer certainly can.

Three Week 11 success stories:

Stafford/Brady Quinn— Facing one another’s horrible defenses, the young quarterbacks had career days. Confidence-booster? You bet. The Lions can only hope Stafford’s left shoulder is alright.

Matt Cassel— Speaking of confidence-boosters, how badly did Scott Pioli need Cassel to step up and  beat one of the better teams in the league? Sure, Pioli granted fans’ wishes by cutting Larry Johnson, but people expected more out of this team than what they’ve gotten.

Michael Crabtree—He’s developed a nice rapport with Alex Smith and his first of many touchdowns in this league deserves some recognition.

Three Week 11 failures

Pittsburgh’s defense— Who knew Chris Chambers was harder to stop than Chad Ochocinco?

Matt Leinart’s career— Irrelevant, yes, but it had to be said.

Any of the live chatters who were hesitant about starting Hines Ward there were plenty of you out there, and if you didn’t listen to me you missed out on 128 yards and a touchdown. For shame.

I was right about:

Greg Jennings— perhaps the most asked about guy in the Sunday chat answered everyone’s questions with 126 yards and a touchdown.

Kevin Boss— Alright, I didn’t say that he’d have two touchdowns, but I did say I liked his matchup with the Falcons on Sunday and noted that he was a smart bet. Same thing, right?

I was wrong about:

Calvin Johnson— I owe Andrew from Boston an apology. I envisioned the Browns and Lions matchup as being like the boxing match in Sgt. Bilko in which neither fighter threw a punch and one of them eventually fell. Well, both sides came out swinging and I came out looking very wrong.

Ochocinco— I knew that I was sticking my neck out by recommending Ochocinco vs. Asomugha over some easier matchups, but I really thought that last week’s two-catch, 29-yard showing against the Steelers would be motivation enough for Palmer and Ochocinco to rise to the occasion.

Boy, what the Texans/Titans game lacked in Chris Johnson touchdowns it more than made up for in excitement. Keep checking the Reality Bites blog for fantasy analysis leading up to a big day of football on Thursday. Also, email me at djbean@weei.com and let me know which players you are thankful for this season, as this week is just as much about football as it is about giving thanks.

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