| Drawing realizations from fantasy — Week 8 | 11.02.09 at 4:58 am ET |
Week 8 featured a ton of surprises. I, for one, am no longer undefeated thanks to Shonn Greene, but it’s hard to stay upset after such a tremendous week of football. A backup dominated while a starter was benched after one yard, a star back showed he didn’t need 10 carries to prove his worth, and perennial top-fantasy pick finally scored his first touchdown. Here are some things we can take from Week 8.
I was right in saying a Texans running back would have a breakout game
…I was just wrong in predicting which one. Did anyone in the world think Ryan Moats, who entered the game with just 56 yards on the season, would rattle off 126 yards and three touchdowns? Maybe somebody would go out on such a limb if they thought he’d be starting, but the plan was for Moats to watch while Steve Slaton terrorized a Bills defense that entered Sunday dead last against the run. Instead, fumbles got the best of Slaton for the seventh (and apparently last) time and Moats turned inherited carries into a career day. As people saw with Maurice Jones-Drew’s monster day despite only getting eight carries (see below), anybody can run rabid on the Titans defense, and with the Texans set to face them in Week 11, it might be worth picking up the barely owned Moats (0.2 percent in ESPN leagues) and hoping he becomes the starter. Based on his output today, he should at least be given another look next week against the Colts.
Aaron Rodgers has still been better than Brett Favre this season
While I personally spent the early weeks of the season comparing Kyle Orton and Jay Cutler, two quarterbacks who will be held up against one another for the remainder of their careers, it is pretty fascinating how similar Favre and Rodgers have been… until you realize that their numbers are only similar because Favre has played in one more game than Rodgers. The 2005 first-round pick has 43.5 more passing yards per game, and though he has two less touchdowns than Favre (14 to Favre’s 16), he has thrown only two interceptions to Favre’s three. Sure, Favre threw more touchdowns Sunday, but between Rodgers throwing more per game and his underappreciated ability to scramble, Rodgers is undoubtedly the better fantasy quarterback of the two. The numbers will fall in Rodgers’ favor more when he faces the Buccaneers next week.
Steven Jackson owners experienced a first
That’s right folks, Jackson’s seven-week touchdown-less streak finally ended Sunday against a terrible Lions defense, but this still isn’t the time for owners to get excited. Yes, aside from the touchdown problem he has been a workhouse and has 784 yards on the season, but nothing about Sunday suggested that he was going to begin scoring touchdowns on a regular basis. The reasons are fairly obvious. First of all, he isn’t going to face the Lions every week. Second of all, the Rams are still incapable of getting decent field position. Sorry owners, this just isn’t Steven Jackson’s year fantasy-wise, even if he is close to being on pace for a career-high in yards.
Forgotten quarterbacks had memorable days
This one could also be called “David Garrard and Vince Young had a reversal of roles” but this title is probably nicer to Garrard. We’ll get to the Jaguars stuff later, but Sunday was about Young and Alex Smith coming back from the dead. After being written off as busts (and for good reason), both quarterbacks had starting jobs fall into their laps this week because the veterans who had previously passed them on the depth charts had fallen on their faces. Young did his part (15-of-18 on dink-and-dunk passes, 135 yards, one TD, no picks—how 2007 David Garrard is that?), and even though he did it against a Jaguars defense that has been incompetent against the pass this season, it suggested that Young’s confidence—something that his career has depended on— may be growing. Still, no amount of success on Sunday could have given fantasy players reason to believe in him, even with the 49ers up next. At this point Young shouldn’t even be considered in one-quarterback leagues, and is still a pretty terrible option in leagues that feature two quarterbacks.
Meanwhile, Smith should get more credit than Young, though he won’t because he didn’t help his team to victory. Prognosticators will see the one touchdown, one interception line and close the book on Smith, but he had to do more work Sunday than Young (14 more pass attempts than Young, for starters). In addition, and this is the main point here, Smith did everything he’ll need to do in order to one day be a decent quarterback: He threw at Michael Crabtree a ton (nine times) and hooked up with Vernon Davis for a touchdown. It might take longer than anyone cares to wait, but if his rapport with Davis continues and Crabtree becomes as big a part of the offense as he is expected to become, Smith could be worth something one day—just not any time soon.
Running backs can do whatever they want against the Titans
When Maurice Jones-Drew rushed for his 79-yard touchdown in the third quarter the Titans could at the very least take solace in the fact that it was shorter than the 80-yard touchdown they had allowed to him just a quarter earlier. Backs can shred up this defense, and they have Frank Gore up next, potentially followed by the emerging Ryan Moats in Week 11.
The struggles are going to continue for Matt Ryan
Well, they will over the next three weeks, at least. Seven interceptions over his last three games, including three against the pick-happy Saints, couldn’t have been what owners were looking for on draft day, and Ryan’s struggles most likely are not over. The Falcons’ next three games are as follows: Home against Washington (second in the league against the pass), at Carolina (first), and at the Giants (third). That’s right, Ryan will be facing the top three defenses in the league against the pass over the next three games. Owners might want to consider their other options for now. On the contrary…
…Things are looking up for Michael Turner, finally. But is he in the clear?
Go ahead and play the “he’s good for a touchdown a game” card, but that’s all he has been. Just one game with multiple touchdowns– not to mention the fact that he has rushed for under 70 yards four times on the season– doesn’t exactly scream “top pick,” but at the very least he seems to be heating up just in time for a seemingly easy matchup against the Redskins, who currently allow the tenth-most rushing yards per game. Unfortunately for Turner, however, Washington has allowed just three rushing touchdowns on the season. Proceed with caution. As has been the case all year, Turner might not be the slam-dunk people think he is.
Dustin Keller has a pulse
Mark Sanchez got back on the track of success by relying heavily on his tight end. If there are two things that are true about young quarterbacks it’s that they commonly depend on their tights end and that they are extremely wary of messing with success. If they find one player that is working for them, they will almost target them too much. Braylon Edwards and Jerricho Cotchery were each targeted eight times apiece by Sanchez, but the rookie fired for Keller a team-high 13 times. Keller was able to reel in eight of those passes for 76 yards and a touchdown. He is owned in only 56.5 percent of ESPN leagues, so he may be worth adding to your roster if it means potentially getting Sanchez’ new favorite target for next to nothing.
Kyle Orton has been a safe quarterback for longer than people realize
I told reader after reader Sunday morning that Tony Romo was a better play than Orton. One reader was confused as to why I wasn’t giving Orton enough credit, so I figured I would throw the Boilermaker a bone (For what it’s worth, I was still right. Romo tossed three touchdowns while Orton treaded water against the Ravens). I’ve written in the past of how impressive Orton has been and, like many others have before, I wrote about how different he has been from Chicago Kyle Orton. Looking through the numbers, it occurred to me that everyone, including yours truly, got caught up in his rookie year (winning with interceptions) and decided to brand him with it. Though everyone is talking about how his one interception through his first seven games is a revelation, Orton threw just four picks through his first 10 games last season with the Bears. Of course, he went on to throw eight picks in his next four, but this shows that Orton’s responsible start is no fluke.
That wraps up Week 8. Check in throughout the week for everything you need to prepare for Week 9. Also, send any questions you have about your fantasy team throughout the week to djbean@weei.com. The trade scenarios that people have emailed have been pretty fascinating, keep them coming!

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