| ‘09-’10 Reality Bites Fantasy Football Awards | 01.04.10 at 5:43 pm ET |
The fantasy football season is over, and if you’re a good friend you are likely harassing the rest of your league via email about how you dominated them for 16 or 17 weeks. With the end of the season also come the distinctions of the season’s most impressive (and disappointing) players. Without further ado, we give you the Reality Bites Awards.
Most Valuable Player: Aaron Rodgers — 4,434 passing yards, 30 passing TD, 7 INT, 5 rush TD
Honorable mention: Chris Johnson
Before people lose their minds and say that I have done nothing but esteem the likes of Rodgers and Jeremy Maclin all season, keep in mind that this isn’t the first award I have given to Aaron Rodgers. Writing for an NFL draft site, I chose Rodgers as the recipient of the Ryan Leaf award prior to the 2005 draft, saying his learning from Jeff Tedford at California would likely give him a career similar to others taught by the coach—Akili Smith, Trent Dilfer, Joey Harrington, and Kyle Boller. There is no bias here, just surprise.
The season put together by Chris Johnson was astonishing, and yes, record-breaking. However, it was a first-round performance that came from a first-round pick (average draft position 8.0 in ESPN leagues). Rodgers finished slightly ahead of Johnson in fantasy points and did so with an ADP of 35.5, meaning that if you landed the season’s top performer, you did so in the third or fourth round. There was far more value in selecting Rodgers in the third round than choosing Johnson in the first and I will happily debate that with any Johnson owner who disagrees.
Player of the Year: Chris Johnson – 2509 total yards, 16 total TD
First of all [thanks to reader Matt P. for the tip], I cannot for the life of me begin to understand why so many media outlets are incorrectly reporting that Chris Johnson broke Marshall Faulk’s total yards record with 2,254. Faulk’s record was 2,429 and Johnson had 2,509. Moving on…
The decision to make Johnson Player of the Year as opposed to co-MVP was difficult, but the logic behind this is that Johnson stands a much better chance of being the top overall pick in leagues next year than Rodgers based on his position. Not only that, but Johnson finished with 304 fantasy points, 60 more than the second-best running back, universal top pick Adrian Peterson. Rodgers, on the other hand, finished 28 points of No. 2 QB Drew Brees but received the nod as MVP because he was drafted 30.8 picks later on average.
Mr. Dependable: Aaron Rodgers
Honorable mention: Philip Rivers, Matt Schaub, Brett Favre
No-brainer. This award goes to the individual who had the most games with over 15 points, and Rodgers accomplished the feat 13 times on the season. To give an idea of how consistent Rodgers was compared to the rest of the league, Rivers, Schaub, and Favre all tied for second in the category with 10 such games apiece. Rodgers scored an average of 20.5 fantasy points per game and was truly in his own statistical realm of consistency.
Biggest Bust: Matt Forte
Here’s where I remind some poor readers that they spent a top-five pick on a guy who played every game and still ended up the No. 19 fantasy running back (and scoring just 15 points more than the likes of Laurence Maroney). Granted, Michael Turner (ADP 3.2) finished just three fantasy points ahead of Forte, but he did so by missing five games in an injury-plagued season. Forte’s scoring was just a third of what it was in his rookie year, as he followed up his 12 total touchdown 2008 campaign with just four scores (all rushing) in his sophomore season. Wondering who had the ADP directly behind the tremendously sub-par Forte? One Christopher Duan Johnson. That hurts.
IsN’T he Disappointing Award: Jay Cutler
Put down your style books, kids, the INT was capitalized for a reason. Yes, interceptions come with a high total of passing attempts (his 555 attempts were fourth in the league), but here are the numbers on the rest of the quarterbacks to finish top-five in attempts:
Matt Schaub: 583 attempts*, 4,770 yards*, 29 TD, 15 INT
Peyton Manning: 571 attempts, 4,500 yards, 33 TD, 16 INT
Tom Brady: 565 attempts, 4,398 yards, 28 TD, 13 INT
Jay Cutler: 555 attempts, 3,666 yards, 27 TD, 26 INT*
Tony Romo: 550 attempts, 4,483 yards, 26 TD, 9 INT
*led NFL
The fact that Cutler threw for 732 yards less than the next-closest guy on the list illustrates that it wasn’t as though Cutler’s picks were the result of throwing a bunch of deep passes. Cutler was throwing shorter passes and was still picked six more times than rookies Matthew Stafford and Mark Sanchez.
Think Cutler misses having Brandon Marshall, who turns bad throws into great plays? If you think that the touchdown to interception ratio looks bad, consider that Cutler had just as many games (eight) with multiple touchdowns as he did games with multiple turnovers— and he did so with a schedule that included five games against defenses that finished the year in the bottom five against the pass. The Bears will continue to rely on Cutler next season, but the fact of the matter is that he isn’t a smart enough quarterback to handle such a heavy workload.
Welcome to the Big Kids’ Table Award: Matt Schaub
Honorable mention: Miles Austin
As the above table demonstrates, Schaub can absolutely handle throwing the ball more than any other quarterback in the league, but did anyone expect it? After playing just 11 games in each of his first two seasons in Houston, Schaub had an ADP of 64, making him the ninth quarterback and 60th player selected in the average league. Seven of the top 10 fantasy performers this season were quarterbacks, and Schaub’s status as the eighth-best fantasy player certainly earns him the distinction of being one of the top quarterbacks in the league.
Comeback player of the Year: Brett Favre
Honorable mention: Tom Brady
Let’s face it: nobody knew what to expect out of Tom Brady, and for him finish fifth in fantasy points coming off tears to his ACL and MCL speaks volumes. However, the reason the country tore the Vikings to pieces for signing Favre was because they didn’t think that he was necessary in an offense that would revolve around handing the ball to Adrian Peterson. Nobody counted on Favre developing such a rapport with Sidney Rice and Visanthe Shiancoe, and they certainly didn’t count on him finishing the season with 33 touchdowns, just one behind Drew Brees for the lead league. This is a number that is skewed by the fact that Favre signed with Minnesota in the midst of the fantasy draft season, but Brady had an ADP of 13.1, just over 97 ahead of Favre’s 110.4.
Tease of the Year: Cedric Benson
Couldn’t decide whether to call this one “Tease of the Year” or “You’re Half the Man You Used to Be.” I felt the word half had be thrown in there because Benson played the first half of the season like a guy the Bears would spend the fourth overall pick on. Between leading the league in rushing and registering single-digit fantasy points just once through his first eight games, Benson appeared a safe bet as one of the season’s bigger steals. Injury kept him out of two games, but he scored 10 or more fantasy points just three times down the stretch, really hurting those who owned him in head-to-head leagues. With an ADP of 74.4 in ESPN leagues, finishing as the No. 12 fantasy back still made Benson a great value, but he proved to be far from what he appeared to be in the first half.
That wraps up the 2009-2010 fantasy football season. Thanks to everyone who stuck with the Reality Bites blog throughout the year and participated in our weekly chat. Congratulations to all who found success in their leagues and for the rest of you, there’s always next year.
| Drawing realizations from fantasy — Week 16 | 12.28.09 at 3:39 am ET |
Week 16 has received some different treatment here at Reality Bites, as the focus has obviously been on preparing people for their championship games. With the week a day away from being in the books, most fantasy seasons are over, but not all of them. Even so, this edition of realizations won’t be like the others, as predicting who will play and they’ll do in Week 17 is about as easy as predicting that a defensive end would kick off for the Falcons. That being said, it was an exciting week in fantasy football. Here are some of the highlights.
Tom Brady and Randy Moss made their statement.
I wrote during the week of how Brady and Moss hadn’t had a “statement” game since Week 10, and even discouraged some people from starting Moss in the Sunday chat. Three touchdown catches later, I will blame only myself if my inbox is flooded with angry emails. Whether Moss and Brady are given the opportunity to try to pad their stats against a playoff-hungry Texans team in Week 17 remains to be seen.
Where were all the Todd Heap touchdowns before last week?
Sunday marked the second consecutive week in which the Ravens’ tight end reeled in two touchdown catches. This, of course, after scoring touchdowns in the league’s first two weeks and disappearing from the end zone in the 11 weeks following. With the Jeremy Shockeys of the world a crapshoot for health and playing time, there is no reason to stay away from Heap against the Raiders next week, even if Sunday marked the second week this season in which his only catches went for touchdowns.
Ricky Williams never even got a chance.
And it was easy to see why. Considering that his team fell behind the Texans 27-0 in the first half, the back that was supposed to do big things for both the Dolphins and your fantasy team received just 10 carries on the day. All in all Chad Henne handed it off just 15 times, but with the Dolphins technically still in the mix (?!) Williams may be worth starting in Week 17 against the Steelers.
No, it wasn’t too soon for Josh Morgan.
A reader in the Sunday chat was planning on starting Morgan against the Lions and I told him to go for it. His fantasy output was limited— just four catches for 21 yards— but that can be chalked up to an average performance from Alex Smith (230 yards, TD). That still makes five straight weeks with at least three catches (three with six or more) and it really looks like Morgan could be something of value in PPR leagues next season.
Three Week 16 success stories:
Despite not having a 100-yard game all season, Tomlinson is finishing strong, having scored nine touchdowns in the last seven games.
I was so focused on what the Giants running backs could have done to the Panther’s run defense that I didn’t see those 206 yards coming. Clearly, neither did the Giants.
The Falcons’ offense looked like 11 guys who were unaware that they weren’t playing for anything Sunday. White headed the group with 139 receiving yards and a touchdown.
Three Week 16 disappointments:
Following up three touchdowns with none and two interceptions? Bad form, Vince.
MSW went from being a breakout player to another inconsistent receiver Sunday by having his sixth game with three catches or less.
I said there was some risk with starting Maroney, but I didn’t think a first-quarter fumble would land him on the bench for the day.
I was right about:
Knowshon Moreno being a dud against the Eagles.
I wrote it during the week and I wrote it Sunday during the chat: Moreno looked terrible against Oakland, so why would one count on a rookie to redeem himself against a significantly better defense?
Joe Flacco failing to throw for 250 yards.
Make it nine times this season that Flacco hasn’t thrown for 250 yards. The second-year quarterback did manage two touchdowns to offset his interception, but as long as he’s in an offense that focuses on the run as much as it does, don’t count on big yardage from Flacco.
“I was right” is an understatement. I predicted 110 yards and a touchdown for Jones against the Colts and was just five yards off (105).
I was wrong about:
What wasn’t I wrong about this week? I had people starting Steven Jackson, who ended up being deactivated at 3 p.m. EST, and sitting Randy Moss for his best performance since Week 6. A few of the readers were kind enough to say how great the chat has been. Boy, am I glad they said it before the games were played Sunday.
I hope my advice on Steven Jackson didn’t hurt people too badly in their championships. Vent to djbean@weei.com and have a safe new year.
| Fantasy Football Live Chat: Sunday @ 11am | 12.27.09 at 12:36 am ET |
Triumph is in front of you! WEEI.com Fantasy Editor D.J. Bean will try to help you achieve your championship ambitions by dispensing this week’s wisdom on Sunday at 11 a.m. Join him in the Virtual Pressbox to seek last-minute suggestions and for the latest pre-game updates.
| Let (false?) hope be your friend | 12.24.09 at 2:30 am ET |
Fantasy football, though over 40 years old, is still far from perfect in 2009. One of the biggest imperfections is the playoff format in head-to-head leagues. Players resting for the real playoffs or simply getting a head-start on nursing injuries for the next season often gives added stress to one’s path to victory. When playing for all the marbles in Week 16, it’s rare that owners use their Week 11 roster and get away with it. As a result, your best bet may to be to trust the players whose teams’ playoff hopes— far-fetched or otherwise— rest on their shoulders. Here are the teams still hoping for playoff spots and the fantasy impact they will have for you.
Teams that control their destinies:
Bengals (9-5) vs. Chiefs
Though it sounds illogical at first, the Bengals would be wise to take a page out of the Browns’ book. Think Jerome Harrison had his way against the Chiefs in Week 15? Cedric Benson could use Kansas City’s doormat of a run defense (31st in the league) to break his six-week streak without a touchdown. Marvin Lewis may rest his feature back late if the team jumps out to a huge lead, but the Chiefs are bad enough for Benson to do enough damage early.
Meanwhile, the passing game has also returned to Cincinnati. Chad Ochocinco seemed to go into hibernation for the four weeks following the team’s Week 8 bye but has had touchdowns in three consecutive weeks since. That, combined with Kansas City’s 22 passing touchdowns allowed, make both Ochocino and Carson Palmer solid starts in Week 16. Expect a 300-yard, two touchdown performance from Palmer, similar to what he mustered Week 15 against the Chargers.
Patriots (9-5) vs. Jaguars
This game is one of three matchups this week between two teams that are looking to secure a playoff spot. Playing in two weeks is obviously a much greater possibility for the Patriots, as they can lock up the AFC East with a victory at home against the Jaguars. Nevertheless, both teams will be pulling out all the stops, which might not be tremendously encouraging for Tom Brady owners. The last four weeks have seen four touchdowns and six interceptions from Brady, who has thrown for 250 yards just once in the span.
Despite Randy Moss scoring a touchdown against the Bills and the country subsequently treating it as though he broke Jerry Rice’s record all over again, No. 81 is still a player that carries a considerable amount of risk with him. On paper he is the Jaguars’ worst nightmare, but that same paper—box scores, that is— also reads that he has had five catches just once in his last four games. Brady and Moss haven’t had a “statement” game since Week 10 against the Colts (a game they lost), so owners can only hope that the duo is looking to clinch the division and silence critics in one blow. Laurence Maroney, just one score away from his first 10-touchdown season, is also a dicey start considering the Jaguars have allowed just nine rushing touchdowns in ’09.
Cowboys (9-5) vs. Redskins
One week after Marion Barber scored twice to ruin the Saints’ hopes of a perfect season, the Cowboys’ lead back faces a Redskins defense that ranks 23rd against the run and allowed a pair of touchdowns to Ahmad Bradshaw in a 45-12 massacre. Though Barber was slumping prior to the big Cowboys’ victory, expect at least one touchdown Sunday night.
Tony Romo, meanwhile, may have a bit more on his plate. Though the Redskins allowed three touchdowns to Eli Manning in Week 15 and looked dreadful on defense all night, they still rank fifth in the league against the pass, allowing just 194.1 yards in the air per game. This dents Romo’s potential impact in Week 16, but he will be good for at least a touchdown pass, making Miles Austin, who has scored in each of his last four games, a good play.
Packers (9-5) vs. Seahawks
The Packers have a far easier remaining schedule the Giants, but with New York at home against the Panthers in a very winnable game on Sunday, the Packers will need to take advantage of a Seattle defense that has allowed the fourth-most passing touchdowns in the league (26). Enter Aaron Rodgers, who came into the league as a middle-of-the pack option and has come out of it the top fantasy quarterback in the league. Rodgers should be good for at least three touchdowns.
As for Greg Jennings, last week’s 118-yard performance that included a touchdown against the Steelers can either be taken as a return to form or as his lone bright spot since Week 11. However you view it, you should see it as a top-20 receiver gaining momentum as his team is looking to lock up a playoff spot. Look 100-plus yards and a touchdown, similar to his performance against the 49ers.
Ravens (8-6) vs. Steelers
Like the Texans and Dolphins game, this matchup features two teams that need to come out of Week 16 with a win, so don’t expect Joe Flacco to walk into an easy situation in Pittsburgh. The second-year quarterback had four touchdowns last week against the Bears, but he had one or none in the seven previous games, including a couple of softies against the Lions and Browns. Touchdowns aside, Flacco has thrown for 250 yards just six times all season and might fail to make it seven against a Steelers defense that allows 221.1 passing yards per game.
Ray Rice, like Flacco, is also not the safest of starts. One week after rushing for 87 yards and not scoring, owners can expect similar production with the Ravens playing at Heinz Field. Rice had 155 total yards (88 rushing) Week 12 against the Steelers, so if he wants to have any value in Week 16 he will need to be more involved in the passing game than he was against the Bears (17 receiving yards). Either way, Rice isn’t a great bet to get in the end zone, so consider all your options at running back.
Broncos (8-6) vs. Eagles
Knowshon Moreno was a fantastic disappointment in Week 15 in what appeared to be a great situation going in against the Raiders and without Correll Buckhalter taking carries away. The Eagles (10-4) will come out strong as they remain in a battle with the Vikings (11-3) for the other bye in the NFC, so if Moreno struggled as much as he did against the Raiders, you might want to think twice before sending him out against an Eagles defense that is 10th in the league against the run and has allowed just 10 rushing touchdowns all season.
A victory for the Broncos against a tough Eagles defense may have to be delivered through the air, and Brandon Marshall and Kyle Orton have definitely been on the same page of late. Marshall has at least seven catches and a touchdown in the Broncos’ last three games. The Eagles are third in the league with 23 interceptions, so expect a pick or two from Orton but don’t be caught be caught with Marshall on your bench.
Teams still in the mix:
Giants (8-6) vs. Panthers
Giants fans had better hope the Panthers don’t make Manning look as bad as they made Brett Favre (224 yards, 0 TD, INT) look last week. Lucky for Manning owners, the quarterback did some embarrassing of his own Monday night against the Redskins, which begs the question of whether Manning’s three touchdowns were the product of an offensive outburst or a slip-up from a Washington defense that has consistently ranked in the top five against the pass this season. Even if it is the former, the Giants’ passing attack will once again be put to the test against a top-five defense, and one with 10 more picks (19) than the Redskins (nine).
The running game is a completely different story. In the past two weeks Maroney and Adrian Peterson have registered double-digit fantasy points against the Panthers, suggesting a big day for New York’s tandem of Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs. Give Bradshaw the slight edge, because though he had seven less carries than Jacobs’ 16 against the Redskins, he got the goal line carries, two of which resulted in touchdowns.
Dolphins (7-7) vs. Texans
Ricky Williams hasn’t had multiple touchdowns in a game in five weeks, so it may not wise to bet your playoff hopes on him bucking that trend. Yes, he will likely get 20-plus carries because he is practically Miami’s only hope, but the Texans have boasted an underrated defense against the run. 80 yards and a touchdown is what owners got out of Williams in Week 15 against the Titans, and expecting similar production in Week 16 is fair. Just don’t get carried away with the fact that the Dolphins depend on him.
Jets (7-7) vs. Colts
Last week wasn’t the best time for Thomas Jones to confuse the life out of owners. Regardless, he, like Williams, is the best option on a team that needs this win to potentially stay alive, whether coach Rex Ryan is aware of the situation or not. The Colts have been fairly average against the run, but they have made up for having the 16th-ranked run defense by allowing just nine rushing touchdowns on the season. The Colts obviously don’t need this one anywhere near as badly as the Jets, so look for Jones to finish with numbers similar to Maurice Jones-Drew’s rushing performance against Indianapolis in Week 15 (110 yards, touchdown), but without the touchdown grab.
Jaguars (7-7) vs. Patriots
David Garrard nearly propelled the Jaguars past the Colts in Week 15, but unless you’re in dire straits or in a two-quarterback league, keep him on the bench against the ninth-ranked pass defense in the league. Best-case scenario he and Mike-Sims Walker pick on a secondary that has allowed 23 touchdowns this year, worst-case he throws one touchdown or less, as he has done 10 times this season (seven games with zero touchdowns) and goes fumble-crazy.
Jones-Drew is a similar case, though he has been so good this season that suggesting he sit this one out sounds ridiculous. Even so, the Patriots have allowed a league-low three rushing touchdowns on the season, so Jones may have to contribute more in the passing game to stand a better chance of getting in the end zone in Week 16. Still, despite Garrard’s three touchdowns last week and Sims-Walker’s breakout season, if the Jaguars are going to rely on anyone in order to stay alive, it will likely be Jones-Drew.
Titans (7-7) vs. Chargers
Does anybody in North America think that Chris Johnson won’t reach 100 yards rushing against the Chargers on Sunday? After nine straight weeks of reaching the century mark, it would be both illogical and irresponsible to not start the best back in the league in your championship while he just so happens to have his own teams playoff hopes on his back. This is the ultimate Can’t-Pass-Up Matchup, and as I wrote last week, actually writing that you should start Johnson dumbs down what we’re all about here at Reality Bites.
Vince Young, like Johnson, is also a very smart play on Friday night. While Johnson has gotten tons of much-deserved credit for this team’s playoff push despite starting the season winless through the first six weeks, consider that Young was the spark plug that took over in Week 8 and has had 11 total touchdowns since. Expect throwing for a season-high three touchdowns in Week 15, expect at least another two from Young against the Chargers.
Texans (7-7) vs. Dolphins
Andre Johnson has played out of his mind in his last two games (over 190 yards receiving against both the Seahawks and Rams). This is will be one of the better games this week, as both of the teams are still hanging on in the race for the playoffs. That being said, Johnson will still produce because, as he has proven in the last three weeks, there is no stopping him. Look for 150-plus yards receiving and a touchdown against a Miami secondary that has more interceptions but allows slightly more yards per game than the Rams.
Matt Schaub has slowed considerably since Week 6 (392 yards, 4 TD against the Bengals) when it comes to touchdown strikes, but he remains second to only Peyton Manning in passing yards on the season with 4181. Depending on whether Jim Caldwell decides to rest Manning, which regardless of what he says looks like a possibility if the Colts jump ahead of the Jets early, Schaub has a good chance of finishing the season as the league’s leader. In do-or-die time, I see a big week out of Schaub and Johnson, with the quarterback throwing for three touchdowns for the first time since Week 6.
Steelers (7-7) vs. Ravens
I suggested after the Green Bay game that Ben Roethlisberger, fresh off a 503-yard, three-touchdown performance, may be worth rolling the dice on in Week 16 against the Ravens. Big Ben may be good for two touchdowns, but don’t expect more than 250 yards against a Baltimore defense that has allowed 200.3 passing yards per game, good for sixth-best in the league. As for his running back, Rashard Mendenhall still shouldn’t be trusted considering the Ravens have given up just seven rushing touchdowns on the season and less than 100 yards rushing per game.
As I wrap this up, I definitely need to wish a happy holiday first and foremost to rotisserie players, as they have gotten approximately zero attention over the past couple of weeks. Regardless, keep those questions coming to djbean@weei.com and we will see you Sunday.
| Drawing realizations from fantasy — Week 15 | 12.21.09 at 3:39 am ET |
They say you shouldn’t bring your problems to work, but I feel compelled to share with the world that after being the top team in my league (the one I really care about, at least) all season and having a bye last week, I have been eliminated from the playoffs. Lucky for me and everyone else who’s been eliminated, the fantasy talk and analysis never ends here at Reality Bites. Here’s what we can take from a big week of fantasy playoffs.
While America was talking about Chris Jennings, Jerome Harrison was breaking records.
Breaking records from the waiver wire, that is. Jennings was perhaps the most popular name during the Sunday morning chat and a reader even blasted me for recommending Quinton Ganther over him. Well, in the end it was all much ado about nothing (which is what Jennings’ seven carries and 18 yards essentially was). Meanwhile, that other Browns running back (who, by the way, was owned in just 10 percent of ESPN leagues) took it upon himself to rush for 286 yards and three touchdowns against the Chiefs. With the Raiders up next, it will be fun to see how many people drop Jennings for Harrison, though I doubt many who started Jennings will have a game to play next week.

David Foster and Peter Cetera did it all for the glory of love, while Arian Foster just didn't do anything.
[Oh, and while we’re on the subject of over-hyped running backs in Week 15, it’s good to know that David Foster was just as useful as Arian Foster.]
You can’t blame Monday night on him, but Quinton Ganther’s fantasy run is over.
10 carries isn’t enough to base one’s value on, but despite scoring a third-quarter touchdown against the Giants, the combination of his yards per carry (2.1) and his next opponent (Cowboys), make it unwise to put your championship hopes on Ganther’s shoulders. The Redskins as a team had only 11 rushing attempts from their backs because they were playing from behind all night, but the Saints had the same amount against the Cowboys and mustered only 65 yards.
Don’t worry about the Steelers throwing in the towel.
As the old adage goes, “even if a guy struggles to throw for 200 yards against the Browns, he can still throw for over 500 against the Packers.” Huh? Ben Roethlisberger played out of his mind (503 yards, three touchdowns) on Sunday in a game that didn’t appear to matter in the grand scheme of things. The team technically isn’t eliminated from playoff contention (considering the Steelers are 4-6 against the AFC, they might as well be) but Mike Tomlin undoubtedly has a lot of pride and the city of Pittsburgh still has enormous expectations for the organization. For those who remain in their fantasy playoffs and are wary of starting players only to have them benched in the second half, the Steelers are a team to trust in crunch time. Pittsburgh stays at home against the Ravens in Week 16, which might scare some off, but consider that even after the shellacking they took on Sunday, the Packers still boast the second-best defense in the league.
Here’s how bad Jay Cutler is:
- Seven games with multiple picks.
- Four games with at least three picks.
- Two games with no picks.
- Six games with multiple touchdowns.
- 19 touchdowns to 25 interceptions.
I’ve opted for only using stats to explain just how miserable Cutler has been this season because I feel that trying to put the devastation of owning him in into words may be misconstrued as libel. The numbers say it all.
Who says Randy is back?
Alright, it was nice to see a five-catch game from Moss for the first time since Week 11, but does anyone really believe that he is where he was in Week 6 (129 yards, 3 TD) or Week 10 (179 yards, 2 TD)? Moss had 70 yards receiving and a touchdown on Sunday. Know who else did? Demetrius Williams. [I chose against putting a link to his page because based on his stats this season, one wouldn’t think he was still on the Ravens or any NFL roster for that matter.] Think people will go nuts on the waiver wire for Demetrius Williams now? The answer is obviously no, because that kind of performance is average and certainly not what people have come to expect from Moss over the years. Even though the Jaguars have struggled at times against taller receivers, Moss should spend Week 16 on your bench.
Will the success continue for Beanie Wells?
Yes, Tim Hightower saved face with a second-quarter touchdown, but the thumb injury proved enough for the carries to be deferred to Wells. The rookie rushed 17 times for 110 yards and an 18-yard touchdown against the Lions, and with the Rams up next, one would think Wells could do even more against a worse defense against the run. Now that the Cardinals have clinched the division, however, Ken Whisenhunt may begin resting his starters, making Wells, likely a major playoff contributor for the Cardinals, a shaky fantasy start in Week 16. Stay tuned on this one.
Three Week 15 success stories:
Welcome back to fantasy relevance, MBIII. After taking a six-week break from scoring, Barber saw the end zone twice.
Anything was going to be a dramatic step down from last week’s record-setting performance, but anyone hoping for more than 73 yards and a touchdown against Nnamdi Asomugha— banged up or not— was selfish.
The Delaware product must have felt bad about not having a multiple-touchdown game since Week 6, so he rewarded owners with four scores.
Three Week 15 disappointments:
This failed opportunity is reminiscent of Roethlisberger’s dud last week against the Browns. Especially in the playoffs, Moreno’s 42-yard stinker must have been devastating.
Vince Young throws three touchdown passes and none of them are to Britt?
Anyone out there think Brady would be outperformed by Ryan Fitzpatrick? Over the last five weeks Brady has thrown more interceptions (six) than touchdowns (five).
I was right about:
Steve Smith (CAR) over Britt
How distant a memory is Week 7, when the entire country was down on the touchdown-less Smith? Between his five touchdowns in his last six games and his post-game chatter, order seems to have been restored.
It isn’t exactly commonplace for tight ends to have big fantasy days without scoring a touchdown, but Miller’s 118 receiving yards propelled him to double-digit fantasy points.
I was wrong about:
Don’t get too upset with me on this one, as I’ve already served my sentence by losing my league for starting Bush over Barber.
The one guy I told to sit Roethlisberger
Luckily I didn’t tell anyone to sit Harrison, because costing two people huge points in the playoffs truly would ruin the holiday season for me.
Nothing like watching a guy you gave flex-status to go for over 100 receiving and score an 83-yard touchdown.
Congratulations to those who are still going strong. To ensure you don’t go into your championship (if you haven’t had yours already) unprepared, send your questions to djbean@weei.com.
| Fantasy Football Live Chat: Sunday @ 11am | 12.20.09 at 1:14 am ET |
Knowledge is power in the playoffs. WEEI.com Fantasy editor DJ Bean will help you set your roster for the playoffs. Join him for his weekly chat on Sunday at 11 a.m.
| Can’t-Pass-up Matchups — Week 15 | 12.17.09 at 5:29 pm ET |
Welcome to the Week 15 edition of Can’t-Pass-up Matchups, where our list feature less players facing bad teams and more players who seem to be guaranteed at least close to four quarters of playing time in what is likely your fantasy playoffs.
[Disclaimer: Chris Johnson will not be included this week based on the fact that any Johnson owner who needs to be reminded to start their best player needs more help than Reality Bites could possibly offer.]
Kurt Warner vs. Lions
This is the season for giving, being with the ones you love, and redeeming yourself after turning the ball over three times. The Cardinals couldn’t secure the NFC West last week against the 49ers (pat on the back to those of us who saw the early slaughter coming), but Warner owners may be better off in the aftermath of Warner’s dud, as the Cardinals should come out more focused and ready to go off against the Lions, who have given up the most passing yards and passing touchdowns in the league. Considering the 49ers are still technically in the mix, there shouldn’t be a great threat to Warner’s playing time.
Ricky Williams vs. Titans
Cue the “if Steven Jackson couldn’t get 40 yards against them, how can Williams?” questions. The Dolphins are one of four teams with a 7-6 record vying for the final playoff spot in the AFC. If they want any chance of securing it, they will need a big day out of Williams, who in three of his last four games has gone for over a hundred yards and scored at least once. The idea that Williams’ Week 15 production will be a step down from his 108-yard and one touchdown performance last week against the Jaguars is a fairly shallow argument. While the Titans do currently rank seventh in the league against the run, they have allowed two more touchdowns (11) than the Jaguars. If the Dolphins are going to win and stay in the playoff picture they will do it with Williams.
Thomas Jones vs. Falcons
The Falcons have given up 117.8 rushing yards per game, which isn’t good news for them considering the Jets are trying to ride Jones to the playoffs. The Jets haven’t gotten anything of value from their quarterbacks since Week 8, so the Wild Card or perhaps AFC East will depend on Jones’ ability to propel the Jets past their other offensive shortcomings. Here’s one that will tell you what you’re getting with Jones each week: the Virginia product has received at least 20 carries in eight straight games. He has averaged just under a touchdown per game in that span, and with practically all of the offensive focus on him, he should see the end zone.
Matt Schaub vs. Rams
The Texans may not be fighting for a playoff spot, but at 6-7 they are doing all they can do reach the Houston standard of 8-8. The Rams’ may be a couple of notches better against the pass than the Seahawks were, so while Schaub likely won’t throw for 365 yards again, he should throw for at least two touchdowns.
Laurence Maroney vs. Bills
The biggest question surrounding Maroney each week is whether he will get the carries. Week 14 against the Panthers marked the first 20-plus carry game for Maroney in which he didn’t reach the end zone, so if he is used heavily don’t expect the trend to continue. This one may look like fool’s gold, but if the easiest way to beat the Bills is to run all day on the league’s worst run defense, which Maroney figures to do. If that isn’t enough, factor in the wind and potential snow flurries on Sunday and you should be a believer.
CLOSE CALLS
Peyton Manning vs. Jaguars
Don’t get me wrong—Manning should get the start against the Jaguars, but it will be interesting to see if Jim Caldwell makes good on his claim that he will play his starters all game in other weeks.
Ray Rice vs. Bears
Even if he doesn’t get all the carries, he sure gets the yards, as was proven in his 13-carry, 166-yard Week 14.
Broncos defense vs. Raiders
Odds are Charlie Frye hasn’t become the quarterback the Browns hoped for in ‘05 in his time bouncing around benches.
That should get you ready for a big week of fantasy playoffs. Email your questions to djbean@weei.com and stop by Sunday at 11 a.m. for our weekly live chat.

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